LDL Goal Attainment Probability

Select Unit*:

Initial LDL Level (Without any lipid lowering therapy)*:
Target LDL Level*:

* Both values must be entered in the same unit: g/L, mmol/L, or mg/dL.

*This application does not replace the clinical judgment and is designed to help the physician to refine the patient-centered care decision process, particularly in the setting of primary prevention. It does not reflect the opinion of their designers but is based on published scientific data (1). Estimations were based on published data on variability of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol response (1). Since values were not strictly Gaussian, estimations based on mean values +/- SD were not always appropriate (deviation > 10% between estimated and observed values), and a more stringent method was required. Data were generated by visual extractions of each waterfall plot. Data were manually extracted on the available internet app (https://plotdigitizer.com/) to generate samples of at least 50 points. Then, polynomial equations were developed from each sample table (https://stats.blue/Stats_Suite/polynomial_regression_calculator.html). Regressions with a R>0,98 were considered as consistent enough and each formula was applied for each statin drug at each dosage (12 tables in total). Then, expected reductions in LDL concentration (y-axis) were calculated for each rank (x-axis, from 1 to 100) for each drug and each dosage (12 new generated tables). The probability of LDL goal attainment was defined as 100 minus the x-rank corresponding the most to the expected LDL decrease threshold (y-axis). Concerning ezetimibe estimations, we hypothesized that for reaching LDL goal with ezetimibe, the awaited goal with statin alone would be 25% higher than the one with ezetimibe combination (arbitrary 20% additional reduction of LDL with ezetimibe). This assumption has the limitation of potential inter-individual variability of ezetimibe response. This may induce some minor biases in estimations of the combined therapy.
(1) Karlson et al, Eur Heart J Cardiovasc Pharmacother. 2016 Oct;2(4):212-7
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